Project: Feasibility Study - Bangladesh Vehicle Emission Control Centers

Project Overview This project assessed the feasibility of establishing a sustainable vehicle emissions control system in Bangladesh by creating a network of seven new and upgraded Vehicle Inspection Centers (VICs), supplemented by mobile testing units. The initiative, part of the broader Bangladesh Clean Air Project (BCAP), aims to significantly reduce air pollution from the transport sector, improve road safety, and strengthen the institutional and regulatory capacity of the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA). The total estimated investment for this component is US$35.5 million.

My Role & Methodology As the lead economic analyst for this feasibility study, I was responsible for conducting the comprehensive Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). My role involved:

• Updating existing cost estimates and demand parameters based on new data and the revised project scope.

• Developing detailed financial projections from a total investment perspective.

• Modeling the economic returns by incorporating key societal benefits, primarily the health benefits from reduced vehicle emissions.

• Conducting sensitivity analysis to assess the project's viability under different scenarios.

The CBA was performed over a 25-year project life, using a 12% discount rate. Key parameters included upfront capital expenditures for infrastructure and equipment, operational costs, and projected revenues from inspection fees. Economic benefits were estimated by modeling the reduction in mortality costs attributed to vehicular pollution.

Key Findings & Economic Impact The analysis revealed a clear distinction between the project's financial and economic viability:

• Financial Returns: From a total investment perspective at market prices, the project showed a negative financial NPV of -2.8 Billion BDT and a financial IRR of -0.4%. This was largely due to substantial upfront infrastructure costs and a relatively low vehicle inspection fee of 800 BDT. The levelized cost of inspection was calculated at 2,948 BDT, indicating the need for fee adjustments or PPP models for financial sustainability.

• Economic Returns: When societal health benefits from emission reductions were incorporated, the project demonstrated strong economic viability. The economic NPV was calculated at BDT 13.6 billion, with an economic IRR of 50% and a benefit-cost ratio of 4.6.

• Broader Impacts: The project is expected to significantly reduce air pollution, improve public health, enhance road safety, modernize Bangladesh's vehicle inspection system to meet international standards, and strengthen the technical and managerial capacity of BRTA.

Sample Analysis & Disclaimer

[Download Sample Economic Analysis (PDF)]

• Disclaimer: This document is provided as a sample of my analytical work for portfolio review purposes only. It is a draft version and should not be cited or distributed. The final, official economic analysis is contained within the comprehensive Project Appraisal Document (PAD) available from the World Bank Operational Website.