Project Overview The Uzbekistan Rural Infrastructure Development Project (RIDP 2) is a World Bank initiative designed to improve the quality and accessibility of basic socio-economic infrastructure in rural areas of Uzbekistan. The project operates on a demand-driven basis, where communities participate in selecting and implementing sub-projects. These can range across various sectors, including the construction and modernization of schools and kindergartens, drinking water and sanitation systems, rehabilitation of tertiary roads, power supply initiatives, and improvements to public spaces.

The Analytical Challenge Assessing the overall economic viability of RIDP 2 presented unique challenges due to the extensive menu of eligible sub-projects and significant variations within each sector (e.g., different types of road materials, diverse school interventions). Furthermore, the project's Results Framework included many indicators focused on social returns (like participation and grievance redressal) which are difficult to monetize directly for a traditional cost-benefit analysis.

My Role & Methodology As the lead economic analyst, my primary responsibility was to develop and implement a feasible and robust methodology to assess the economic viability of RIDP 2. This involved selecting representative sub-projects to model and then aggregating their estimated impacts.

Key aspects of the methodology included:

• Focusing the detailed Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) on three sample sub-projects from Component 1, covering key infrastructure sectors:

  • Graveling of a 26.5 km internal road.

  • A drinking water supply project.

  • Construction of a 10 km electricity network.

• Employing an integrated project appraisal approach with a 20-year analytical horizon and an 11.5% discount rate specific to Uzbekistan.

• Converting market prices to economic prices using established conversion factors (e.g., adjusting civil works for VAT, applying ADB study factors for labor).

• Modeling benefits incrementally by comparing "with project" and "without project" scenarios. This included quantifying travel time savings, reduced vehicle operating costs, accident cost savings, and GHG emission reductions for roads; savings in water collection time, reduced health treatment costs (including DALYs averted), and savings on purchased water for water projects; and savings from reduced reliance on alternative energy sources for electricity projects.

Key Findings & Economic Impact The economic analysis demonstrated significant positive returns for the selected infrastructure investments and the aggregated model:

• Aggregated Model (Roads, Water, Electricity - representing ~76% of Component 1 budget): The combined analysis yielded a Net Present Value (NPV) of 6.3 trillion UZS (approximately USD 500 million), an impressive Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 2.63, and an overall project Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 56.6%.

• Individual Sub-project Viability:

  • Roads: NPV of 19.7 billion Som, BCR of 3.07, IRR of 112%.

  • Water Supply: NPV of 34 billion Som, BCR of 4.0, IRR of 63%.

  • Electricity Supply: NPV of 152 million Som, BCR of 1.21, IRR of 16%.

• Overall Conclusion: The analysis indicated the potential for a "transformative economic impact on RIDP 2 beneficiaries and the Uzbek Society," with benefits largely accrued through travel time savings and improved health outcomes.

Sample Analysis & Disclaimer

[Download Sample Economic Analysis (PDF)] (This is where you will link your PDF for this project)

• Disclaimer: This document is provided as a sample of my analytical work for portfolio review purposes only. It is a draft version and should not be cited or distributed. The final, official economic analysis is contained within the comprehensive Project Appraisal Document (PAD) available from the World Bank Operational Website.